← SGCCC Mortal Ambition season Store Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at SGCCC Mortal Ambition season Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
9-1-3
overall winrate
80.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.3%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
61.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1484
· median 1484
· range 1433–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1136
Q3 1379
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.1% | +4.1 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Exia | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
